Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 4.437598 5.307011 6.272675 7.420634 8.743730 10.216367 11.974811
2025-03-09 2.985811 4.094239 5.469006 7.280029 9.581221 12.384265 16.030506
2025-03-16 2.098685 3.253609 4.831954 7.101023 10.225767 14.317187 20.007294
2025-03-23 1.687880 2.905438 4.710125 7.495976 11.585350 17.248478 25.534979
2025-03-30 1.330307 2.527443 4.440613 7.590549 12.483538 19.597882 30.470329
2025-04-06 1.055690 2.202910 4.170036 7.605565 13.220141 21.742307 35.268250
2025-04-13 0.844030 1.927903 3.914818 7.580574 13.855879 23.756768 40.008251
2025-04-20 0.761617 1.873384 4.024407 8.169493 15.527349 27.488148 47.631462
2025-04-27 0.652810 1.735621 3.951083 8.414206 16.631071 30.391305 54.159673
2025-05-04 0.571027 1.633979 3.925197 8.733067 17.882388 33.618267 61.418774
2025-05-11 0.475057 1.472211 3.744934 8.723512 18.529700 35.865304 67.205924
2025-05-18 0.375279 1.270092 3.437188 8.408016 18.561802 37.035169 71.240229
2025-05-25 0.287928 1.074361 3.109171 8.012379 18.420346 37.932941 74.966976
2025-06-01 0.235854 0.961672 2.953907 7.966935 18.968296 40.130970 81.150806
2025-06-08 0.188715 0.845646 2.763773 7.810431 19.267043 41.884031 86.654533
2025-06-15 0.172218 0.826875 2.825350 8.252579 20.869697 46.231404 97.171306
2025-06-22 0.146753 0.765184 2.754672 8.360241 21.753975 49.238333 105.363239
2025-06-29 0.122883 0.698835 2.655054 8.378334 22.437539 51.891261 113.039245
2025-07-06 0.101974 0.634404 2.545470 8.351821 23.012826 54.360294 120.500680
2025-07-13 0.098217 0.645661 2.677406 8.991580 25.197336 60.267360 134.968168
2025-07-20 0.087215 0.617324 2.673796 9.257250 26.517410 64.456391 146.264996
2025-07-27 0.078852 0.598251 2.697514 9.603202 28.061869 69.211644 158.928838
2025-08-03 0.066200 0.548865 2.602994 9.592850 28.728132 72.131162 168.046186